January 13, 2003
Amendment 13 Catch Projections
The MFP graphs below display
catch rates or the Total Allowable Catch (TAC) as projected for certain
important species in the
draft Amendment 13 document based on the Groundfish Assessment Review
Meeting (GARM) report. The GARM advice is for fishing effort generally to be
cut by 50% and kept low over the next seven years. The bizarre result would
be the sudden jump by as much as three to four fold in the catch rates
between 2009 and 2010.
It makes no business sense to grow a stock at such a high price only to
end up with so much available fish that the business cannot handle the volume
in 2010. The New England Fishery Management Council estimates that up to 90%
of fishing vessels will go out of business if the GARM report’s fishing rates
and rebuilding schedules are implemented. While NOAA Fisheries stock
assessments continue to show rapid growth in stock abundance for most species
even in the face of research vessel trawl warp errors, fisheries management
should allow for the gradual increase in harvesting rates over a longer
period of time until the stocks are fully rebuilt.
The NOAA Fisheries projections in the MFP graphs raise more questions
about the science underpinning the recommendations. Given continuing dramatic
recoveries in fish abun dan ce, is it
necessary to put most of the New England fishing industry out of business in
order to fully rebuild fish stocks sooner?
All the data for the
graphs is taken directly from Tables 15, 16 and 17 in the NEFMC Draft
Amendment 13 document.
Gulf of Maine Cod
Georges Bank Cod
Cape Cod Yellowtail
Georges Bank Yellowtail
Georges Bank Haddock
Gulf of Maine Haddock
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